Marvel Rivals: The Live Service Outlier

Source: NetEase Games

Marvel Rivals became the “second-biggest launch for a brand new free-to-play game ever” by Steam CCU after its release in early December. And though new live service games frequently see massive engagement at launch before a steady decline, Marvel Rivals has actually grown in popularity; it has firmly bucked the recent trend set by live service failures like Concord and XDefiant.

That’s not the only reason the game stands out. Marvel Rivals now has the most popular gaming Discord server by far too, and its success marks another huge step forward for Chinese companies in the Western HD market, not long after Black Myth: Wukong became one of the fastest-selling games of all time. Marvel Rivals’ developer and publisher NetEase (China’s second-largest gaming company) has also created what is likely an instant classic.

Beyond demonstrating the appeal of the Marvel IP, NetEase has effectively bridged AAA live service game development and support across China and the U.S. The game is far more popular in Western markets than in Asia, but the game team appears to operate from both China and the U.S/Canada. North American teams are mostly based in Seattle and Montreal and consist of “game and level design,” though there are also many designers in China. Two individuals — Seattle-based Thaddeus Sasser and Guangyun Chen, who is presumably in China — have been described as the game’s director in the press. The North America team, which also includes many employees in marketing and publishing, has robust experience at Halo Studios (previously 343 Industries), Treyarch, Big Fish, Ubisoft, and other top developers.

Given its similarities, Overwatch (published by NetEase in China) is often described as establishing the precedent for Marvel Rivals. But NetEase’s own Naraka: Bladepoint (released in 2021, went F2P in 2023) may have done even more to pave the way, demonstrating the potential of a hero-based, third-person PvP title with anime/East Asian aesthetics among Western HD audiences. It also proved that NetEase could successfully operate and grow a live service game in the West.

Thus far, NetEase and Marvel seem to have struck gold with their new hero shooter. But has Marvel Rivals elbowed its way into the competitive live service market for good?

Contextualizing Marvel Rivals’ Success

Chinese gaming site Gamelook estimated Marvel Rivals’ first month revenue at approximately $136M, of which $100M came from outside China. Data compiled by Microsoft’s Will McCahill from Steam’s top-selling charts also demonstrates Marvel Rivals’ chart dominance since launch.

Marvel Rivals has been among the top grossing Steam games worldwide since launch. Countries are bolded by Steam bandwidth usage | Data source: Steam (via Will McCahill); Chart by Naavik.

The IP’s regional appeal appears to be a factor in maintaining revenue momentum. After a strong early performance in East Asia, Marvel Rivals dropped significantly in the key markets of China, Japan, and South Korea at the beginning of the Steam Winter Sale and failed to recover. Revenue in large Western markets rebounded swiftly after the sale.

Despite its anime-inspired aesthetic, Marvel Rivals has not maintained its status as a top performer in East Asia. Time will tell if NetEase can turn this around, though historical Steam data indicates an uphill battle.

Other games that are in ostensibly similar genres, like Overwatch 2 and The Finals, share fewer of the same players with Marvel Rivals than one might expect. This shows that the game is attracting players who don’t normally try hero shooters, presumably due to the strength of the Marvel IP and its combination of launch stability, solid game balance, low skill-barrier, player-friendly monetization, and unique art style.

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Data source: Steam (via Will McCahill) | Chart by Naavik (Note: The y-axis begins at 70%)

Marvel Rivals shares the most overlap in Steam reviewers with Helldivers II, another relatively recent live service launch. Overwatch 2, meanwhile, has both fewer shared Steam reviewers with Marvel Rivals and also lower positive sentiment among those reviewers.

Players who reviewed Marvel’s Spider-Man: Remastered see Marvel Rivals more positively than any other game’s reviewers, though it is tied with two others that had fewer shared reviewers. This indicates the appeal of Marvel’s IP to successfully bring in players from a very different game genre.

NetEase’s other major live service title, Naraka: Bladepoint, scores poorly, with few overlapping reviewers and a relatively low percentage of positive reviews from those players. Will McCahill attributes this to the phenomenon of Chinese Steam reviews being more negative than the global average, and Naraka’s high player population in China.

The relative distribution of Marvel Rivals’ reviewer overlap and sentiment characterizes the uptake of the game among its competitors’ audiences, and points to how the game may perform against this peer group long term.

Across PC and console, Marvel Rivals is the only recent free-to-play shooter to grow DAU during its first 30 days | Source: Newzoo

Among its peer group of recently launched HD live service titles, Marvel Rivals is the only one to have grown its user base in the 30 days after launch. With the launch of Season 1 on January 10, NetEase has, in fact, boosted its Steam CCU by 52% compared with the seven days prior, largely thanks to new heroes the Fantastic Four.

Anecdotes suggest these are among the game’s most in-demand characters when queuing for a match, something that must delight Disney as it prepares to release the first new Fantastic Four movie in a decade this summer.

Marvel Rivals’ massive reach in both CCU and Discord members is even more pronounced compared to the largest Discord servers for PC live-service games | Data sources: SteamDB, Discord (January 2025)

Discord has been a major engagement feat for Marvel Rivals. The game’s Discord is promoted from its home page, and has become the largest gaming Discord globally, with nearly double the membership of the next-largest game, Genshin Impact, and far more than comparable HD-only games. In fact, Marvel Rivals now appears to be the second-largest Discord server of any type, behind only AI tool Midjourney.

Marvel Rivals’ Discord server is nearly twice that of Genshin Impact and 31% of its members were active in chat at time of writing, relative to Genshin Impact’s 22% | Source: Discord, January 2025.

This enormous community allows Marvel Rivals to better maintain its audience than competitors. The game rewards users for connecting their Discord and Twitch accounts to their game profile, and offers links to do this directly from its home page.

NetEase also leveraged Discord’s recent Quests feature to run a promotion that gave users an exclusive Discord badge of beloved yet controversial Jeff the Land Shark character — all things that, in addition to the general popularity of the game and its IP, have helped its Discord reach the heights it has.

Marvel Rivals is heavily weighted towards PC players, especially amongst the more engaged players who have joined its Discord | Sources: Discord, Steam, PlayStation, Xbox

Marvel Rivals’ Future

A well-executed, free-to-play hero shooter with such a big licence attached was always destined to draw some interest at launch. Still, Marvel Rivals’ ongoing success is a result of much more: delightful gameplay, player-friendly monetization, fine-tuned competitive balance, frequent content releases, and a smooth technical launch, to name a few of its key qualities.

Though there are open questions about the longevity of any game of this type, especially when heavy investment in new content is required, thus far Marvel Rivals has outperformed essentially all of its peer games and is a true outlier in the market.

Marvel Rivals interview – how to make a hit live service game

Marvel Rivals launched with far more playable characters than any other leading hero-based online game. Note that Overwatch includes both games | Sources: Metro, Mobalytics, Fandom.

Thus far, Steam CCU has declined back to its baseline after the start of Season 1 on January 10 and the launch of the first two Fantastic Four characters, The Invisible Woman and Mr. Fantastic. What’s interesting is that this baseline is essentially the same as the game’s launch CCU, indicating Marvel Rivals is, so far, not losing players in between content releases. Instead, CCU spikes during new content releases before returning to a steady, not declining, level. In the short term, expect the final two members of the Fantastic Four to drive another spike when they are released.

Marvel Rivals is a true outlier – its launch day CCU surpassed every comparable game, and spiked further with the release of Season 1’s heroes | Data source: SteamDB; Chart by Naavik.

Long term, the game is positioned well for growth. Top streamers like Shroud are proclaiming their devotion to the game — he says he might play it “for the rest of [his] life,” in fact. The streamer, who was involved in the development of another recent free-to-play shooter, the troubled Spectre Divide, has played Marvel Rivals more than any other game recently: Of his 12 broadcasts over the past two weeks, seven were of Marvel Rivals, with no other game getting more than a single broadcast.

The authentic, ongoing interest of top streamers may put Marvel Rivals among the recurring top games on Twitch and could support the possible emergence of an esports presence.

NetEase has committed to more frequent content releases than nearly any game, after already launching with more heroes than any comparable title. This is significant as new content is the biggest driver of reengagement, but unlike other games, such as Riot’s or Blizzard’s titles, new characters in Marvel Rivals are already beloved, like the rumored upcoming X-Men heroes. This will likely mean that Marvel Rivals’ engagement spikes are larger than other games — and already the CCU baseline is higher than most comparable titles.

This higher baseline CCU may also be a result of the game’s unique approach to paid battle passes, which don’t expire at the end of a season, as in many other games. This was also pioneered by Helldivers II and doesn’t punish players for failing to complete a battle pass. While this reduces the scarcity of battle pass items, it instead theoretically limits user churn by maintaining user progression and therefore user engagement. Of course, the game’s massive Discord community is also key to maintaining player interest and engagement too.

Marvel Rivals could also expand its audience with a PS4 release, as other live service games like The Finals have, since as of last year, half of all PlayStation owners are still playing on the PS4. The upcoming Switch 2 could also be a boon — it reportedly runs well enough on Steam Deck, and a free-to-play, recognizable IP on Nintendo’s new console at or near launch will guarantee enormous user traffic, at least.

Marvel Rivals has handily outperformed the hypercompetitive live service game market and appears to only be gaining momentum midway through its first season. It is uniquely well poised for continued growth, possibly becoming the first title in years to join the pantheon of truly massive games like League of Legends and Valorant. If so, it will be a huge win for Marvel and NetEase — and a fearsome new competitor for everyone else.

Written by Carson Taylor, Naavik Contributor & Product Strategist at Samsung Electronics America